Now that daily draw is here, players can win guns and equipment with a lot of patience and lot of luck. I'm not a hard core player, play around an hour a day, but I am a free player, never bought funds. So the daily draw thing was pretty good news, now I have some chances of wining good without paying. But how much luck do you need to win nice stuff? Please, if you don't like this or you think this is c**p, JUST DON'T READ IT, AND GIVE ME A BREAK !!! Thank you Angel
We know that there are 8 card to chose from and you can only chose one card. We also know that in one draw there is at least one nice item and 3 max (from what I noticed). Now when I say "nice stuff" I mean only items that last forever.
In order to see what chances I have to win items, I used 8 real cards two of which were jokers. before a draw I always mixed the cards well so their position can be completely random. I used three different ways to try and win something: absolutely random draw (picked any card that I thought was lucky without any strategy at all), picking only one card (always picked the left hand side top card) and picking one after the other (starting with top left hand side and finishing with bottom right side). For each strategy I picked 50 cards and then multiplied the results with 2 so I can get the right percentage.
1. Random Drawl________ lucky draws: 3,15,19,21,28,34,39,40,49________ -10 in total___20%
2. One Card Always_______lucky draws: 1,6,20,21,37,44,46_______________ -7 in total___17%
3. One After The Other_____lucky draws: 1,2,3,5,18,21,22,23,27,28,30,31____ -16 in total___32%
As you can see the best way to chose you cards seems to be the last one while the worst wan seems to be the one that I, personally thought would be the best. The purpose of this little experiment is to give you a little idea of how luck could "work out". Now I hope thinks are somehow a little clearer.
I don't know if this applies in the online draws so don't make a fuss about it. So please don't take this serious and don't take the things written above as facts, after all this IS about luck.
So after seeing some interesting theories here I decided to repeat the experiment (but made it a bit more like the real thing by alternating the number of good cards) and see if the results are the same or at least somewhere near. The results are pretty interesting:
1. Random Draw: 19% chances to win
2. One card always: 20% chances to win
3. One after the other: 34% chances to win
So it can be inferred that the first two methods have pretty much the same result, but the last one still seems to be better. Sorry for not including the lucky draws, too lazy to write them down.
For the next step in this study I intend to put the best method to the test with the real thing and see if it matches with the results I obtained. It will take a while, need 50 draws so be patience.
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