This is How the Hack Works

[Phemy]

I'm willing to bet it's 100% exploit actually, no hack needed.

[tenkan]

I need to be up in 6 hours. Got Oracle first thing in the morning. I need to have my brain partially working atleast. I won`t deny though, this is worth not sleeping for x`D

[sky_dragon]

Doubtful, it seems like only hackers know how to do it.
I heard there was an exploit where you could get to +11 but then it stopped working, and this was supposedly patched already. This is what the Korean video showed.

Plus, exploits are usually found out by scrubs on the Nexon forum and are made public there before here. For example, the flour glitch and the infinite raid glitch.

[Roxarok]

It'll take 2.5 attempts to go from +8->+9, since success rate is 40%. Because a success won't remove a rune, you lose 1.5 runes per enhance until 12. That's already 6 runes. It'll take 3 attempts for a success at +12->+15, so on average, you'll lose 2 runes per enhance.

(1.5*4)+(2*3)=12 avg.

We all know how Fergus is though >.> I guess anywhere from 10 - 20 Runes is a good estimate.

They would also have to boost dura of items given at +0, since it would be cheapest to begin the process at +8. This means potentially, they would have to use dura pots, depending on how unlucky they are.

Edit: Also supply depot is back up >.> maybe it being down wasn't on purpose lol. Or maybe they're tracking rune purchases now who knows haha.

No offense, but your math is pretty wrong, figuring out the probability of an event happening doesn't work by just adding the chances together til it equals 100, 3 attempts at a 40% chance equals to a 72% probability of being successful. You can never technically reach a 100% chance (note chance and probability are different things). 4 runes is a 96% probability of being successful, however you can still technically get it on the first try, and go ten runes without being successful, though the probability of being successful in ten runes is about 240%.

Granted MY math may be off as I haven't done binomial distribution in a while, but it should be about right.

Edit: Actually I think I did do it wrong, give me a sec and I'll redo it.
Double Edit: Nah, I had it right.

[Acrisius]

First time contributing to a discussion lol
I've always kind of sucked at probability so correct me if I'm wrong:
Assuming you start with a +3 weapon and the success rates in vindictusdb, you have:

+4 75% = .75
+5 75% = .75
+6 50% = .50
+7 50% = .50
+8 50% = .50
+9 40% = .40
+10 40% = .40
+11 40% = .40
+12 40% = .40
+13 33% = .33
+14 33% = .33
+15 33% = .33

We want to know the average amount of runes it will take for +15 from +4
So first we need to know how many runes on average it will take for each enhance so that the final ratio is at least .50

So we have:

x^(12)=.50
ln(x^(12))=ln (.5) natural log of both sides
12ln(x)=ln (.5) take down the exponent
ln(x) = ln(.5)/12 divide by 12
e^(ln(x))=e^(ln(.5)/12) make each side a power of e
x=e^(ln(.5)/12)
x=.9438743...
So we need an average success rate of at least 94.387% on each upgrade from +4 to +15 (or a failure rate of .0561257 or less)
We calculate the needed success rate by calculating the probability that the rune will fail.
Using the failure rates, we can get how many runes we need to meet the needed amount.

a is the number of runes required

+4/+5 chance of fail is 25%
.25^a=.0561257
a=2.143 runes
x2 b/c +4 and +5 = 4.286 runes

+6/+7/+8 chance of fail is 50%
.5^a=.0561257
a=4.155 runes
x3 because +6/+7/+8 = 12.466 runes (16.752 runes total)

+9/10/11/12 chance of fail is 60%
.6^a=.0561257
a=5.61257
x4 because +9/10/11/12 = 22.553 runes (39.305 runes total)

+13/14/15 chance of fail is 67%
.67^a=.0561257
a=7.19182
x3 = 21.575 runes

The total comes out to 60.88 runes
So 50% of attempts will take 60.88 runes or less.
If we assume $19=x5 runes
Each sword will cost $231.34 to make on average.

Of course this contradicts the logical theory that the 50$ deposit is used to pay for all the required runes.
I know one seller is trying to sell weapons for $150, which means they're losing money.

This means that either there's something other than the runes
or
I suck at math xP

[billyblanks]

How is selling hacked items with no public hack any diffrent then mpgh net letting vip hacks be sold?

[Venom93]

First time contributing to a discussion lol
I've always kind of sucked at probability so correct me if I'm wrong:
Assuming you start with a +3 weapon and the success rates in vindictusdb, you have:

+4 75% = .75
+5 75% = .75
+6 50% = .50
+7 50% = .50
+8 50% = .50
+9 40% = .40
+10 40% = .40
+11 40% = .40
+12 40% = .40
+13 33% = .33
+14 33% = .33
+15 33% = .33

We want to know the average amount of runes it will take for +15 from +4
So first we need to know how many runes on average it will take for each enhance so that the final ratio is at least .50

So we have:

x^(12)=.50
ln(x^(12))=ln (.5) natural log of both sides
12ln(x)=ln (.5) take down the exponent
ln(x) = ln(.5)/12 divide by 12
e^(ln(x))=e^(ln(.5)/12) make each side a power of e
x=e^(ln(.5)/12)
x=.9438743...
So we need an average success rate of at least 94.387% on each upgrade from +4 to +15 (or a failure rate of .0561257 or less)
We calculate the needed success rate by calculating the probability that the rune will fail.
Using the failure rates, we can get how many runes we need to meet the needed amount.

a is the number of runes required

+4/+5 chance of fail is 25%
.25^a=.0561257
a=2.143 runes
x2 b/c +4 and +5 = 4.286 runes

+6/+7/+8 chance of fail is 50%
.5^a=.0561257
a=4.155 runes
x3 because +6/+7/+8 = 12.466 runes (16.752 runes total)

+9/10/11/12 chance of fail is 60%
.6^a=.0561257
a=5.61257
x4 because +9/10/11/12 = 22.553 runes (39.305 runes total)

+13/14/15 chance of fail is 67%
.67^a=.0561257
a=7.19182
x3 = 21.575 runes

The total comes out to 60.88 runes
So 50% of attempts will take 60.88 runes or less.
If we assume $19=x5 runes
Each sword will cost $231.34 to make on average.

Of course this contradicts the logical theory that the 50$ deposit is used to pay for all the required runes.
I know one seller is trying to sell weapons for $150, which means they're losing money.

This means that either there's something other than the runes
or
I suck at math xP

Thank god, I was worried I'd have to explain that... I don't think they buy the runes people. not denying it could have somethign to do with runes... but buying them is just too costly and risky. has to be something else.

[Phemy]

They start at +8, not +0

Edit: Lol and my numbers were just estimates, let's focus on the glitch shall we =)

[Acrisius]

They start at +8, not +0

If they start at +8, then it comes out to an average of 36.18 runes, which is just about the $50 deposit.

I did this one in like 2 min so I could be wrong, in a bit of a hurry at the moment.

[Nico]

If they start at +8, then it comes out to an average of 36.18 runes, which is just about the $50 deposit.

I did this one in like 2 min so I could be wrong, in a bit of a hurry at the moment.

What if they'd start at +12?

[Acrisius]

What if they'd start at +12?

About 12 runes

x^3=.5
x=.7937

failure rate must be under 20.6299%

+13/14/15 have a .67 chance of failure
.67^a=.206299
a=3.94 runes per enchant so 11.82 runes to go from +12 to +15 on average

[Joey2012]

First time contributing to a discussion lol
I've always kind of sucked at probability so correct me if I'm wrong:
Assuming you start with a +3 weapon and the success rates in vindictusdb, you have:

+4 75% = .75
+5 75% = .75
+6 50% = .50
+7 50% = .50
+8 50% = .50
+9 40% = .40
+10 40% = .40
+11 40% = .40
+12 40% = .40
+13 33% = .33
+14 33% = .33
+15 33% = .33

We want to know the average amount of runes it will take for +15 from +4
So first we need to know how many runes on average it will take for each enhance so that the final ratio is at least .50

So we have:

x^(12)=.50
ln(x^(12))=ln (.5) natural log of both sides
12ln(x)=ln (.5) take down the exponent
ln(x) = ln(.5)/12 divide by 12
e^(ln(x))=e^(ln(.5)/12) make each side a power of e
x=e^(ln(.5)/12)
x=.9438743...
So we need an average success rate of at least 94.387% on each upgrade from +4 to +15 (or a failure rate of .0561257 or less)
We calculate the needed success rate by calculating the probability that the rune will fail.
Using the failure rates, we can get how many runes we need to meet the needed amount.

a is the number of runes required

+4/+5 chance of fail is 25%
.25^a=.0561257
a=2.143 runes
x2 b/c +4 and +5 = 4.286 runes

+6/+7/+8 chance of fail is 50%
.5^a=.0561257
a=4.155 runes
x3 because +6/+7/+8 = 12.466 runes (16.752 runes total)

+9/10/11/12 chance of fail is 60%
.6^a=.0561257
a=5.61257
x4 because +9/10/11/12 = 22.553 runes (39.305 runes total)

+13/14/15 chance of fail is 67%
.67^a=.0561257
a=7.19182
x3 = 21.575 runes

The total comes out to 60.88 runes
So 50% of attempts will take 60.88 runes or less.
If we assume $19=x5 runes
Each sword will cost $231.34 to make on average.

Of course this contradicts the logical theory that the 50$ deposit is used to pay for all the required runes.
I know one seller is trying to sell weapons for $150, which means they're losing money.

This means that either there's something other than the runes
or
I suck at math xP

You do suck at math. Obviously they're not going to spend $231.34 to make $150. It only requires about 12 runes to go from +7 to +15. I just assume they don't use runes for up to +6 because that's what I normally do. It's pretty simple to figure out the number of runes used.

For +13, chance is 33%. That means on average you will fail two times for every successful attempt hence 2 runes will be used. Same thing with +14 and +15. (6 runes total)

For simplicity, I'll assume 40% is just like 50%, so basically for +7 to +12, on average one rune will be used for each enhancement level. Hence, 6 runes for 6 enhancement levels. (6 runes total)

Sometimes you see people get lucky and go from +11 to +15 without failing. It could happen since that's the only way one can legitamitely make one. Sometimes people get unlucky and spend like 5 or 10 runes just going for +8. But the law of probability states that, on average, about 12 runes or ~$45 to get to +15. Add in $5 for unbind potions. The cost of making each weapon is $50.

If nexon is making $50 per hacked weapon, then they're in no hurry to patch this unlike previous hack/exploit where they don't get anything. If they're not making any money off of this, you can bet they will patch it faster than you can say greedy.

[tenkan]

You do suck at math. Obviously they're not going to spend $231.34 to make $150. It only requires about 12 runes to go from +7 to +15. I just assume they don't use runes for up to +6 because that's what I normally do. It's pretty simple to figure out the number of runes used.

For +13, chance is 33%. That means on average you will fail two times for every successful attempt hence 2 runes will be used. Same thing with +14 and +15. (6 runes total)

For simplicity, I'll assume 40% is just like 50%, so basically for +7 to +12, [b]on average[/] one rune will be used for each enhancement level. Hence, 6 runes for 6 enhancement levels. (6 runes total)

Sometimes you see people get lucky and go from +11 to +15 without failing. It could happen since that's the only way one can legitamitely make one. Sometimes people get unlucky and spend like 5 or 10 runes just going for +8. But [b]on average[/], about 12 runes or ~$45 to get to +15. Add in $5 for unbind potions. The cost of making each weapon is $50.

If nexon is making $50 per hacked weapon, then they're in no hurry to patch this unlike previous hack/exploit where they don't get anything, then they patch it faster than you can say greedy.

Not only 50$ on runes, but also unbind potions. Nexon is making a killing right now. The amount of +15's these bastards are hoarding is insane.

[Phemy]

First time contributing to a discussion lol
I've always kind of sucked at probability so correct me if I'm wrong:
Assuming you start with a +3 weapon and the success rates in vindictusdb, you have:

+4 75% = .75
+5 75% = .75
+6 50% = .50
+7 50% = .50
+8 50% = .50
+9 40% = .40
+10 40% = .40
+11 40% = .40
+12 40% = .40
+13 33% = .33
+14 33% = .33
+15 33% = .33

We want to know the average amount of runes it will take for +15 from +4
So first we need to know how many runes on average it will take for each enhance so that the final ratio is at least .50

So we have:

x^(12)=.50
ln(x^(12))=ln (.5) natural log of both sides
12ln(x)=ln (.5) take down the exponent
ln(x) = ln(.5)/12 divide by 12
e^(ln(x))=e^(ln(.5)/12) make each side a power of e
x=e^(ln(.5)/12)
x=.9438743...
So we need an average success rate of at least 94.387% on each upgrade from +4 to +15 (or a failure rate of .0561257 or less)
We calculate the needed success rate by calculating the probability that the rune will fail.
Using the failure rates, we can get how many runes we need to meet the needed amount.

a is the number of runes required

+4/+5 chance of fail is 25%
.25^a=.0561257
a=2.143 runes
x2 b/c +4 and +5 = 4.286 runes

+6/+7/+8 chance of fail is 50%
.5^a=.0561257
a=4.155 runes
x3 because +6/+7/+8 = 12.466 runes (16.752 runes total)

+9/10/11/12 chance of fail is 60%
.6^a=.0561257
a=5.61257
x4 because +9/10/11/12 = 22.553 runes (39.305 runes total)

+13/14/15 chance of fail is 67%
.67^a=.0561257
a=7.19182
x3 = 21.575 runes

The total comes out to 60.88 runes
So 50% of attempts will take 60.88 runes or less.
If we assume $19=x5 runes
Each sword will cost $231.34 to make on average.

Of course this contradicts the logical theory that the 50$ deposit is used to pay for all the required runes.
I know one seller is trying to sell weapons for $150, which means they're losing money.

This means that either there's something other than the runes
or
I suck at math xP

You have them spending 4 runes at going from +4-+5. I'm pretty sure that's wrong. My estimate might not be 100% correct, but it's a good enough ballpark. I haven't done binomial distribution or expectancy in like 2 years, and the only thing I ever use every day is t-square value to determine significance, and even then it's just looking up a table lol.

We're not trying to find the probability of a guaranteed +15, we're trying to get expected number of runes used, in the long run.

Edit: You also have to remember, upon success, the rune isn't used. So it's not the number of attempts we're finding, it's the number of failures.

[tenkan]

y of a guaranteed +15, we're trying to get expected

To do that, we must craft our own +'15's.