First of all it could be all luck....
BUT recently I have been recording times of deagle camo and qbz and it seems consistent of a pattern a.k.a not random luck...
first deagle camo wins about every 5 or 10 minutes or 30 minutes mostly around 3 - 4.
yesterday during the christmas patch everyone kept winning it every 3 mins....
now i have never won a black market crate....maybe it's all luck.....but who knows.......
it would be useful if we got some deagle camo crate times in the comments.....