This is How the Hack Works

Well done man, so I guess that all-nighter was useful after all.

Yes and no. It's heavily based on luck. If it takes me 10-20 runes to get to +15 from +8 and there is maybe couple runes left over, not any profit there. Next weap takes me 3-5 runes, there is profit.

How many runes you need on average? Do you have the same % of failure from going to every rank after +10 then in a regular enhance?
edit: How well, you answered by the time I finished typing!

It was my method!!! > : (

/sarcasm

I'll be going to the discussion page as well. Thanks for the cleanin up Nico.
sky_dragon, welcome to the club. ,-,

you have a point.
Well I'm curious of what I did wrong, so maybe someone can help me out.
The idea is to calculate the average amount of runes needed at each enhancement. Since probability of success in multiple attempts is cumulative (only the successful enhancements move on to the next step), all of the subsequent attempts depend on whether the previous one had succeeded.

Since we're doing this with successes and due to the fact that enhancement runes aren't used up in a successful attempt, it's much easier to work with the probability that the rune will fail, which is exactly what i considered.

So in the end, we want to consider this: given a set number of runes (current unknown), what is the needed probability of success at each enhance attempt in order for the cumulative probability to be 50% of success.
Basically, what number of runes gives us a 50/50 chance of getting to +15 and what's the average success rate needed at each attempt. If we calculate the number of runes needed to get LESS than the given failure rate (1-success rate), we can get the average number of runes we'll need per attempt.

So I set x^12=0.50
Because there are 12 enhance attempts.
x=.9438743

In other words, a .9438743 success rate spread out over 12 turns, gives us a 0.50 success rate after the 12th attempt.
.9438743^12=0.50

Assuming this entire premise is correct, then the rest of the calculations are also correct.

EDIT:
Also if we assume a starting point of +8, the needed success rate changes:
x^7=.5
x=.90572
So we work with a failure rate of .09428

T_T yes apparently it needs sub +10, nvm about my +13 lol T_T